Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will
get "killed" by Romney in November.
Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters,
pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or
Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee,
and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.
But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record
of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to
call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year’s Predictions.
I predicted back then-- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney
trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman
Cain to Newt -- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP
nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between
Obama and Romney would be very close until Election Day. But that on Election
Day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a
resounding Romney victory. Thirty two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan
was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So
why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient -- common
sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years
ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people
who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned
off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now-- and that is a bad
harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S.
politics:
Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this
group. His endorsement of gay marriage
has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the
96% he got in 2008. This is not good
news for Obama.
Hispanic voters.
Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate
the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of
Israel. Many Jewish voters and big
donors are angry and disappointed. I
predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60%s. This is
not good news for Obama.
Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic
believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened,
and broke -- a bad combination. The
enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will
actual voting percentages. This is not
good news for Obama.
Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in
2008. That won’t happen again. Out of
desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over
contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time
around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
business owners. At least 40% of them in
my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give
someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on
capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he'd support unions
over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with
spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen.
Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business
owner friends voting for Obama. Not
one. This is not good news for Obama.
Blue collar working
class whites. Do I need to say a
thing? White working class voters are
about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York
Yankees. This is not good news for
Obama.
Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception…it's having a
job to pay for contraception. Obama's
economy frightens these moms. They are
worried about putting food on the table.
They fear for their children’s future.
This is not good news for Obama.
Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of
Obama, the more they disliked him. This
is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there
one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election
day saying, "I didn't vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he's done such a
fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him today." Does anyone feel that
a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My
gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman tell me
this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s
radical and risky socialist agenda. It's
Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I'll give Obama credit for one thing -- he is living
proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
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